In the 2025 Major League Baseball season, several players have significantly surpassed preseason expectations based on ZiPS projections, a statistical model developed by FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski. ZiPS uses recent performance, aging curves, injuries, and play-by-play data to estimate player value in terms of fWAR (Wins Above Replacement). This year’s analysis highlights ten players who have notably outperformed their projected numbers.
Kyle Stowers of the Miami Marlins led the group with an actual 4.0 fWAR compared to his projected 1.1 fWAR. He improved his pulled airball rate by over 13 percentage points from the previous season and hit .288/.368/.544 with 25 home runs before landing on the injured list.
Geraldo Perdomo of the Arizona Diamondbacks posted a 5.0 fWAR against a projection of 2.2. He has increased his line drive rate and improved against breaking balls, raising his average to .287 with 13 home runs and maintaining more walks than strikeouts.
Oakland Athletics rookie Nick Kurtz was projected for a modest debut but delivered a standout season with a .315 average, 26 home runs in 87 games, and a 4.1 fWAR—well above his projected figures.
Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jesús Luzardo exceeded expectations despite some early struggles: “Luzardo has had a few false starts, leaving ZiPS to project him for about 20 games. Coming into the last week of August, he’s made 25 starts. His ERA is still inflated from a nightmarish week in which he gave up 20 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings across consecutive games on May 31 and June 5 — consider that a blip. Luzardo has (mostly) been a different guy in 2025, thanks in large part to a brand new strikeout pitch — a sweeper against which opponents have a 44.6% whiff rate.”
Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs demonstrated unexpected power while continuing strong defensive play.
Another Phillies player, Kyle Schwarber, also stood out: “At 32, Schwarber may be having his best year, and it wouldn’t be accurate to say it came out of nowhere, but it definitely bucked a trend. Schwarber hit 93 home runs from 2022-23 but struggled to keep off the interstate (.207 AVG); he got his average all the way up to .248 last season but failed to reach the 40-HR mark (champagne problems). He’s finally managed to combine the two this year, hitting .249 with 45 home runs, two short of his career high, with over a month left in the regular season — all quite far from the middle ground .220,36-homer season recent history suggested was more likely.”
Cal Raleigh set new standards for catchers offensively; Maikel Garcia improved significantly as both hitter and baserunner; Hunter Brown anchored Houston’s pitching staff after overcoming early-career struggles; Zach McKinstry provided reliable versatility for Detroit.
The results reflect how some players can defy statistical forecasts through skill development or role changes during the course of an MLB season.
